CATL's Zeng Predicts Elon Musk's 4680 Battery Will Fail

Tesla's Challenging Future with 4680 Battery Technology

In a bold assertion, Robin Zeng, the founder of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) and the founder of the world's largest electric vehicle (EV) battery company, has expressed skepticism regarding Tesla CEO Elon Musk's ambitious plans for 4680 cylindrical cell technology. During a recent discussion, Zeng commented that he believes Musk's approach is destined to fail and will not be successful.

The Debate Over Battery Technology

According to Zeng, who shared insights from a significant debate that occurred during Musk’s visit to China in April, he presented his arguments to Musk, leaving the Tesla CEO momentarily speechless. Zeng emphasized his belief that Musk lacks the essential knowledge required to produce batteries effectively.

Understanding the 4680 Technology

Tesla's innovative "tabless" 4680 cells are designed to revolutionize electric vehicle performance, offering "five times" the energy capacity compared to traditional cells. Recently, Tesla announced the production milestone of 100 million of these new cells, which are also utilized in vehicles like the Cybertruck, highlighting the company's commitment to this technology.

Challenges and Future Prospects

However, reports indicate that Musk has set an ambitious deadline for the battery development team to address various issues, including production costs, by the end of the year. This deadline raises questions about the viability and future of the 4680 cells.

CATL's Dominance and Battery Comparison

In contrast, CATL's batteries are currently used in a broad range of electric vehicles, from Tesla models in China to popular Ford vehicles like the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning. CATL has carved a niche for itself by specializing in lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP), which, while not offering the same range as cylindrical cells, have gained traction in the market due to their cost-effectiveness and safety.

Zeng's Insights on Musk

While Zeng questioned Musk's expertise in battery technology, he acknowledged Musk's strengths in other areas such as chips, software, hardware, and mechanical engineering. He raised concerns about Musk's tendency to overpromise timelines, particularly noting the ambitious claims surrounding the Full Self-Driving technology. According to Zeng, Musk often sets aggressive deadlines that may not correspond with realistic development timelines, posing a challenge for project completion.

Conclusion

The future of Tesla’s 4680 battery technology remains uncertain amidst competing interests and expert critique from industry leaders like Robin Zeng. As advancements in battery technology continue to evolve, only time will tell if Musk's ambitious vision will come to fruition or if Zeng's predictions will hold true.

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